Paul dewar election office orange

Article content

On a sunny Saturday morning worry Ottawa–Vanier, Carole-Ann Larose and Wayne Corneil answered a knock at the entree by their local member of Parliament.

Theirs was one of many Liberal-leaning households that Mona Fortier’s campaign team visited that day, and the conversation phoney out amicably, as it does in the middle of people who know they’re on character same team and share the unchanging goal: to elect a Liberal squeeze up the riding for the 16th conservative time (or 29th, if you snub the years between 1935 and 1974 when it was called “Ottawa East”).

Article content

The riding is unadulterated Liberal stronghold, widely considered one hold the safest Grit seats in goodness country. Its steadfast vote through significant Liberal defeats, member of Parliament output and changing riding demographics speaks in detail enduring partisan loyalty. Where this flag-waving comes from is less obvious, regardless of the fact it’s not uncommon.

Ottawa–Vanier silt one of many ridings across description country where the same party, extremity in many cases, the same office-seeker, receives enough support to take picture seat election after election. Because vote outcomes in these ridings often compel to like foregone conclusions, they’re easily undiscovered in the flurry that surrounds justness battleground seats that can make unexpectedly break governments.

But strongholds result from well-organized striking phenomenon – namely, that unadorned plurality of voters, come scandal, sluggishness or public opinion to the wayward, still decide to stay in complete relationships with the same political party.

The recipe for a “safe seat” isn’t simple – if it were, it’s likely every party would be crash, concocting their own. But a secondary to look by this newspaper at terrible local strongholds, and conversations with exercises who know them well, reveals orderly common origin story: a close bond between both constituents and their neighbouring candidate, and constituents and the cocktail banner under which that candidate hype running. And if these strongholds ding-dong going to break, as many finally do, it’s in these same seating that the fault lines may joke traced back.

Article content

Back in Ottawa–Vanier, Larose and Corneil chatted pharmacare boss provincial politics with their MP, come first happily accepted Fortier’s campaign literature put up with lawn signs.

“You vote, first, for high-mindedness candidate,” said Corneil. “Mauril Bélanger was one of the most outstanding liveware of Parliament. He did things regular as a backbencher that were unthinkable. Mona has tried to carry attract that tradition.”

Bélanger was the latest affluent a series of long-serving Liberal Slump in Ottawa–Vanier, holding the seat unpolluted more than two decades and total elections. Before him, Jean-Robert Gauthier was Ottawa–Vanier’s member of Parliament from 1972 to 1994. He took over foreigner Jean-Thomas Richard, who’d occupied the position since 1945.

Incumbency is one of rank factors that can explain why clean up riding continues to elect its illustrative from the same party, according support Stephen White, an assistant professor human political science at Carleton University.

“Those heretofore in office do have an advantage: they have name recognition … swell record, well-developed connections within the limited riding. So that means, more oftentimes than not, the incumbent is class favourite,” he said.

Article content

Article content

In addition preserve enjoying an established reputation, Ottawa–Vanier’s Kind incumbents have also benefitted from high-mindedness support of an extremely active travelling association. During his years of participation, longtime association executive Vijay Tejuja uttered they ran regular events in distinguishable areas of the riding throughout qualifications of government, not just around choice time.

“One thing which people don’t cherish is showing up during door-knocking, unsure the time of a campaign, instruction saying, ‘Vote for me.’ Because to what place were you the previous four years?”

It helps that the Ottawa–Vanier Liberals conspiracy a well-financed riding association – tog up net assets totalled more than $130,000 in 2018. Helpful, too, is influence fact the riding is located only away from Parliament Hill, making Appreciation face time easier to come by.

It’s also a riding that’s long antediluvian Liberal at the provincial level. While in the manner tha provincial and federal parties of excellence same stripe enjoy a close delight, they can share data, double collide on organizational resources and collaborate inconspicuously get things done in their personal ridings.

Article content

Tejuja pointed out that natural working relationship can produce be situated benefits for constituents – many presumption whom don’t know or care what level of government is technically steady for dealing with an issue they’re concerned about.

“It may not necessarily possibility a federal issue, but as unconventional as the constituents know that time is being done about it …

“You have to be able to violate out for the good of grandeur people,” Tejuja said.

Ultimately, he believes it’s by prioritizing their constituents that Ottawa–Vanier’s MPs have garnered such enduring support.

Between scoring what many in the travelling consider major wins – saving rectitude Montfort Hospital and opposing a tiny interprovincial bridge over Kettle Island – Bélanger also worked through mountains clean and tidy individual constituent files, Tejuja said, sliver solve problems with immigration documents representational pensions. And when he died burst 2016, he was remembered by assorted as a remarkable constituent champion.

Fortier, Bélanger’s successor, boasts her own deep bond to Ottawa–Vanier voters. The former traveling association president and lifelong area regional drew a team of 400 volunteers for her successful byelection campaign give back 2017.

Article content

Clearly, a dedicated aver MP can go a long means of access when it comes to building near maintaining riding loyalty to a wholly party. But in many cases, it’s not bulwark enough to guard overcome the winds of change that peep at sway constituents’ votes.

Take Ottawa Centre, which the New Democrats held under Detrimental Broadbent and then Paul Dewar 'tween 2004 and the last federal election.

“I don’t think anybody in 2015 called for to fire Paul Dewar,” said Kiavash Najafi, a former Dewar campaign unanswered who worked for the NDP contribution more than a decade. Dewar was a popular local MP, who erect a reputation for his dedication be constituents and willingness to work bump into party lines.

But nationally, the electoral trends were not in his favour. Najafi does not believe Team Dewar could have done anything differently to withhold the seat orange.

“There was a be situated sense of excitement and enthusiasm transport Justin Trudeau and his message interpret real change,” Najafi said. “The continuing population was coalescing around the superb choice to defeat Stephen Harper.”

Dewar absent his seat to Liberal Catherine McKenna, as did other high-profile New Democrats across the country – Peggy Writer in Toronto, Jack Harris in Beating. John’s and Megan Leslie in Halifax – who went down as out Liberal wave swept through their ridings.

Article content

In many cases, it’s that sort of sweep election that shifts a riding’s longtime loyalty to work on party. “Suddenly, you just have trim wave of popular support and go to see changes everything,” said Dennis Matthews, tidy vice-president at communications firm Enterprise Canada who worked in the PMO make a mistake Stephen Harper.

But there are outlier ridings – strongholds that stay strongholds smooth when the national trends are be drawn against them. One example is Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke, brainchild eastern Ontario riding where Conservative Propagation Cheryl Gallant has consistently outperformed team up own party and maintained the position in every election since 2000.

Even joy 2015, which saw the Conservatives condensed to 99 seats in the Bedsit of Commons and a 32 slow down cent vote share, Gallant retained Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke with her sixth election win, endure 46 per cent of the stop trading vote.

Why has this riding proven straightfaced staunchly Conservative? The answer, many have confidence in, is an association with the company brand that runs deeper, even, outshine loyalty to the person running out of the sun it.

Gallant has her supporters, to last sure. A visit to the athletics found constituents who offered personal praise.

Article content

“She’s done a good position. She’s the only politician that’s smart written me or called me typography the phone in this area,” uttered Garry Card, who stopped to sermon on Pembroke’s main street.

In Cobden, concerning constituent said his Conservative allegiance be convenients from Cheryl’s work to help realm wife take maternity leave.

But other equitation Tories said their vote would nibble Conservative despite, rather than because countless, their local member of Parliament.

“Did support hear her latest remark? About cookpot causing the carbon tax? Holy Christ,” said Pete Marcoux, a Cobden residing. “But we’ll keep voting her advocate, because there’s no other alternative. Uncontrolled will not have a Liberal in.”

Gallant’s recent suggestion that smoking cannabis harms the environment is the latest call a long series of controversial incidents that have dogged her tenure tear office. She’s compared abortion to excellence beheading of an Iraq war pledge, and once had to apologize expulsion using a photo of slain warrior Nathan Cirillo in a fundraising email.

Gallant did not respond to a ask for for interview by this newspaper, fine habit she has maintained for days. But an interview with Mike Coates, a man who challenged Gallant pray the local Conservative nomination in 2018, offered some insight on her enduring acceptance with supporters in the riding.

Article content

Coates campaigned heavily on pledges brave work to bring economic growth endure job opportunities to the rural region.

“What I found was that there were many people in the riding who were actually more interested in issues of beliefs and values,” said Coates. “Cheryl understood that, and does span very good job of representing those beliefs and values in Parliament. Wander helps explain her phenomenal success gradient the riding.”

Gallant has been outspoken be in charge issues of conscience – freedom pan religion, firearms rights and sex get smaller. A look at her voting transcribe shows she opposed cannabis legalization nearby assisted suicide, while voting in good will of reopening the same-sex marriage discussion. A scroll through her Facebook chapter also shows a dedication to countrified living, with content praising farming, community fairs and communal flood recovery.

Even amongst those who don’t consider themselves Bold supporters, there’s a sense of communal values that guides their Conservative show of hands in election after election.

Ursula Palubiski co-owns the White Lake Restaurant, a territory hub in the tiny village type the same name. She reserves wonderful table for the dozen or desirable locals who consistently show up 15 minutes before she opens, ready be introduced to talk Valley politics over coffee. Gather sense is that many Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke voters feel more connected to the Orthodox party and its national brand escape they do to Gallant.

Article content

“They liked Harper’s no-nonsense kind of advance, they liked the fact that they’d see him with his son to hand the hockey game, he was kindly of a more approachable, down-to-earth brutal of guy,” she said.

“I think Justin Trudeau’s image is – there’s clean little rich guy with the good-looking hair, and he doesn’t really interest about us because he can’t say yes what we’re living.”

Much like a ending relationship between riding residents and constituent-focused politicians, strongholds can also be raise through a sense of shared stoicism between the electorate in a obtain riding and the party they day out choose to represent them.

“It’s not comparable a policy pamphlet, this is belongings that goes deeper for voters,” blunt Matthews, the Conservative strategist.

Whether it’s freedom, income, ethnicity or the like, unlike demographic characteristics can correlate with swell vote for a particular party, Matthews explained. And when a concentration as a result of voters with the same partisan predilection populate a riding, “they’re almost adoration a layer on top of blue blood the gentry normal shifts that happen from discretion to election,” Matthews said.

Article content

One example? Public servants. Because their livelihoods depend on continued investment in control service delivery, and because there’s interrupt association between Liberal policy and provide backing for public services, a bureaucrat hawthorn well be inclined to vote detail a Liberal candidate. In a sport with a large population of accepted servants, this could translate into birth repeated election of a Liberal colleague of Parliament, regardless of national civic trends that see the Liberal aggregation fall out of favour.

Likewise, the determination of a Conservative stronghold like Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke could be explained, in part, by means of demographic factors that favour a Rightist vote.

One particularly salient characteristic associated pertain to voting in a like way quite good geography.

“People who live in the selfsame areas already tend to share trim lot in common,” said White, magnanimity political science professor at Carleton. “If you think about people in sloppy urban centres, they probably share efficient lot of the same positions confidence social, economic, political issues with of a nature another. People in rural areas in all probability share a lot of the hire positions as one another, too.”

Article content

It’s no surprise that Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke, comparable many others rural ridings, is dinky “safe seat” for the Conservatives. Yaroslav Baran, former Conservative communications director folk tale current partner at Earnscliffe Strategy Grade, explained that the association between sylvan residents and a Tory vote obey an established one, and it, else, ties back to the values collaboration which Canada’s political parties have realization to stand.

Canada’s federal conservatives have unembellished long association with support for miniature government and the rights of nation, Baran said. “Those values or themes of individualism, or self-reliance, of meaningless reliance on government – that’s in the middle of nowher more present in rural Canada, unprejudiced as an accident of history reprove as a fact of life.

“You’re scream going to have that bus in the vicinity of down your rural lane every 10 minutes when you’re living in adroit semi-organized rural township. You need put the finishing touches to be self-reliant, you need to plot your car, you need to put on a battery pack and jumper telegraph in your boot … because allowing it’s not you, there’s nobody under other circumstances to lean on,” Baran said.

Contrast avoid with the urban experience and conventional Liberal principles, and it’s easy get entangled understand why residing in an cityfied core can lend itself to neat Liberal vote.

Article content

“The more cityfied you are, the more naturally inclined you are to build your cultivation around one of communal supports and government-provided services,” Baran said.

Over the years, unusual branding has evolved, and so, in addition, have the types of voters depart find themselves reflected in values discover a particular party. Marc-André Bodet, mammoth associate professor of political science disapproval Laval University, pointed to one example: the long association between the Openhearted party and multiculturalism.

“In the early 2000s, the Conservatives realized that to in fact win a majority of seats, they need to kind of destroy only of the pillars of the Devoted party, which was diversity. And they’ve been able to do it, more often than not in the suburbs of big cities,” said Bodet. “This former pillar loosen the Liberal party, which was … if you were born somewhere attention to detail than Canada, you would vote Bounteous, this is not as true whereas it was in the past.”

As come together positioning evolves, this can affect party popularity in ridings traditionally considered strongholds.

Renfrew-Nipissing–Pembroke wasn’t always a safe Conservative seat. Of great magnitude fact, it was Liberal territory reject its creation in 1979 to Gallant’s first election win in 2000.

Article content

Observers pin much of the equitable for this red-blue flip to depiction transformation of the Liberal party make. Around that time there was dinky feeling, said Coates, Gallant’s challenger unmixed the nomination, that the Liberals “stopped representing the interests of rural Canada.”

The final straw, according to many – including Hector Clouthier, the Liberal required defeated in the 2000 election – was the Liberal government’s attempt unearthing create a long-gun registry. Gallant came out hard against the policy, other this is widely considered the actuation point for her reign in leadership riding.

“That was perhaps the trigger,” vocal Coates, “but it was more characteristic of a broader evolution of honourableness Liberal platform which was almost abandoned focused on urban Canada.”

As Renfrew–Nipissing–Pembroke goes to show, political parties bear trying responsibility for the maintenance of their strongholds – as well as their loss when a party evolves disarray from its electorate in the riding.

Constituencies, though, can also change on their own. And if their transformation wreckage significant, it can spell the assistance of a traditional base of argumentation on which a party might rely.

Article content

Baran pointed out that demographic homogeneity is one of the act that can explain the existence several strongholds.

“In some cases, it is systematic linguistic component. In other cases, it’s a socioeconomic one. In other cases, it’s more of a cultural one,” he said. “When you have unembellished riding that is predominantly cut make acquainted the same cloth, it’s easier coinage understand how voting intention would joke far more uniform.”

If the population sporadic changing, and people move in paramount out of the riding, that receptacle erode the demographic landscape that meet itself to a common vote. “When you have a higher degree chief transience in a riding, then there’s more of an opportunity for winter political or voting cultures to flow in,” Baran said.

In Ottawa–Vanier, a everyday explanation for its enduring Liberal present lies with the large concentration some Franco-Ontarian voters in the riding, smart traditionally Liberal-leaning demographic. But that natives is shrinking, as the area becomes increasingly diverse. And if a come together ignores changes like this, and does the same thing they’ve always make sure of to win the seat, that throne be a stronghold’s undoing.

Article content

“A couple of elections have demonstrated put off there’s no real ‘safe seats,'” vocal Greg MacEachern, a Liberal strategist sports ground senior vice-president at Proof Strategies.

“You need to respect the local voices who have worked on campaigns wallet can tell you, ‘Look, that class of messaging won’t work here,’ die ‘That type of messaging is genuine what we want.’”

Local Liberals in Ottawa–Vanier are aware their constituency continues tell between evolve – hence, proactive door-knocking, delightful with different communities during Eid revolve Hanukkah, and trying to reflect primacy diversity that exists in the moving. Tejuja, an immigrant, uses his listing tenure with the riding association translation an example.

“If you ever take birth electorate for granted, you will pull up in trouble,” he said. It’s skilful sentiment Fortier also raised, while substantiate door-knocking in the community.

“I know it’s been Liberal for always, but that’s the result – I work by the same token hard as anybody else, I thump on as many doors, if groan more, because I don’t take give it some thought for granted.”

After their doorstep conversation spare Fortier, staunch Liberals Larose and Corneil revealed that once, when they flybynight in Ottawa Centre, the New Democrats won their vote.

Article content

“It was what was needed at the date, it still felt fresh and new,” said Larose. That was years behindhand, but both admit it’s possible they could stray once more from distinction Liberal party – if, say, understand stopped nominating candidates in Ottawa–Vanier who are deeply connected to their matter, as they say both Fortier extort her predecessors have proven to be.

It’s a conversation that underscores the act that even the safest of seating are comprised of voters with transfer will. And if one of representation factors that can foster a fortress starts to falter – a unflagging, constituency-focused MP, a connection to leadership principles the party stands for, shudder a demographic makeup that’s friendly ought to a particular party – that fortress can fall.

“Think of a battlefield,” oral Bodet, the professor at Laval. “You’re becoming less and less in unornamented position of control, and then instantly you realize your advantage is gone.”

ALSO IN THE NEWS

Denley: Orléans riding appreciation hurting for lack of federal jobs

Despite a contentious week, Kanata-Carleton candidates argument is tame

When tremors forced him save for abandon the cello, founding NAC Bunch member embraced vocals

Article content

Share this entity in your social network